TOL vs USO: Correlation
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) and United States Oil Fund (USO) show a negative relationship: their 3-year correlation of weekly returns is -0.24.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are TOL and USO?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of TOL and USO correlate at -0.24, negative, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. The past 12 months show a weaker link (-0.45) than the 3-year average (-0.24). Stretching to 5 years gives -0.11, with an annualized covariance of -335.4 %².
Among the 35 assets we track against TOL, USO sits near the bottom by co-movement, at rank #33. Correlation aside, the last 12 months split them widely, with USO ahead by 68.1 points (+6.0% versus +74.1%).
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
TOL vs USO: side by side
| TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.) | USO (United States Oil Fund) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +6.0% | +74.1% |
| 5-year return | +139.9% | +168.6% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 34.9% | 39.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1.14 | -0.20 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -46.0% | -32.5% |
| Market cap | $13.4B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 11.9 | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.69% | – |
| Sector / category | US Listed | ETF · Commodities |
Year-by-year returns
| Year | TOL | USO |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -30.0% | +29.0% |
| 2023 | +108.6% | -4.9% |
| 2024 | +23.4% | +13.4% |
| 2025 | +8.3% | -8.5% |
| 2026 | +7.9% | +88.0% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are TOL and USO good diversifiers for each other?
Yes: at -0.24, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
FAQ
What is the correlation between TOL and USO?
As of 2026-08-27, the correlation of weekly returns between TOL and USO is -0.24 over 3 years, -0.45 over 1 year and -0.11 over 5 years.
Is USO a good diversifier for TOL?
Yes: at -0.24, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
What does a correlation of -0.24 mean?
On the −1 to +1 scale, -0.24 describes how much the two returns move together: +1 is lockstep, 0 is independence, negative values mean opposite directions. It says nothing about which performed better.
Use this data
$ curl https://www.pairbook.io/api/v1/pairs/tol-vs-uso.json
Drop this badge in a README or notebook; it updates with the data:
[](https://www.pairbook.io/pair/tol-vs-uso/)
No key needed, free to use. Full endpoint list in the API documentation.
Related comparisons
Hubs: TOL correlations · USO correlations
