ULTA vs XLY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) carry a correlation of 0.44, a moderate link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are ULTA and XLY?
On 3 years of weekly data the ULTA/XLY correlation comes out at 0.44, moderate. The relationship has been stable: the 1-year correlation (0.44) sits close to the 3-year figure. The 5-year figure is 0.46, and annualized covariance runs at 304.3 %².
Few assets follow ULTA as closely as XLY, which ranks #2 of 31 tracked partners. Neither side won the trailing year by much: +1.2% against -0.1%. Across three years, the rolling one-year figure varied moderately, from 0.26 to 0.56. One caveat on sizing: ULTA is 1.8 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
ULTA vs XLY: side by side
| ULTA (Ulta Beauty) | XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +1.2% | -0.1% |
| 5-year return | +41.0% | +31.8% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 35.3% | 19.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.75 | 1.15 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -44.6% | -26.0% |
| Market cap | $23.2B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 20.4 | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.78% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.08% |
| Assets under management | – | $22.5B |
| Sector / category | Consumer Discretionary | Sector ETF |
XLY is a Consumer Cyclical fund from State Street Investment Management: $22.5B under management, 47 holdings, a 0.08% expense ratio, a 0.78% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | ULTA | XLY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +13.8% | -36.3% |
| 2023 | +4.5% | +39.6% |
| 2024 | -11.2% | +26.5% |
| 2025 | +39.1% | +7.4% |
| 2026 | -10.7% | -2.6% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
A structural note: 0.59% of XLY is ULTA itself, so the fund partly moves with the stock by construction.
Are ULTA and XLY good diversifiers for each other?
A fair diversifier. At 0.44, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
FAQ
What is the correlation between ULTA and XLY?
As of 2026-08-27, the correlation of weekly returns between ULTA and XLY is 0.44 over 3 years, 0.44 over 1 year and 0.46 over 5 years.
Is XLY a good diversifier for ULTA?
A fair diversifier. At 0.44, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
What does a correlation of 0.44 mean?
On the −1 to +1 scale, 0.44 describes how much the two returns move together: +1 is lockstep, 0 is independence, negative values mean opposite directions. It says nothing about which performed better.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: ULTA correlations · XLY correlations
