MCD vs SPY: Correlation
McDonald's (MCD) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) show a weak relationship: their 3-year correlation of weekly returns is 0.25.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are MCD and SPY?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of MCD and SPY correlate at 0.25, weak. Recent behaviour matches the longer record: 0.20 over 1 year against 0.25 over 3. Stretching to 5 years gives 0.43, with an annualized covariance of 63.2 %².
Among the 34 assets we track against MCD, SPY ranks #22 by 3-year correlation. Their recent paths diverged sharply: over the last 12 months SPY outperformed by 35.1 percentage points (-14.5% for MCD against +20.6% for SPY). On a rolling one-year basis the correlation drifted between 0.11 and 0.58, a moderate band.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
MCD vs SPY: side by side
| MCD (McDonald's) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | -14.5% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | +23.3% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 17.8% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -22.8% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $184.0B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 21.7 | – |
| Dividend yield | 2.75% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | Consumer Discretionary | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | MCD | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +0.5% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +15.1% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +0.1% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +7.9% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | -13.9% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
MCD represents 0.29% of SPY's portfolio, so part of any move in SPY is MCD itself, and the correlation between them is partly mechanical.
Are MCD and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Reasonably. At 0.25, MCD and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
FAQ
What is the correlation between MCD and SPY?
The MCD/SPY correlation stands at 0.25 on a 3-year window (1 year: 0.20, 5 years: 0.43), computed from weekly returns as of 2026-08-27.
Is SPY a good diversifier for MCD?
Reasonably. At 0.25, MCD and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
What does a correlation of 0.25 mean?
A reading of 0.25 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: MCD correlations · SPY correlations
