BND vs USO: Correlation
How closely do Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and United States Oil Fund (USO) trade together? Their weekly returns over three years give a correlation of -0.28, which is negative.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are BND and USO?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of BND and USO correlate at -0.28, negative, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. The past 12 months show a weaker link (-0.53) than the 3-year average (-0.28). Stretching to 5 years gives -0.19, with an annualized covariance of -56.6 %².
USO is close to the least connected end of BND's tracked universe, ranking #33 of 33. Their recent paths diverged sharply: over the last 12 months USO outperformed by 71.8 percentage points (+2.3% for BND against +74.1% for USO). The relationship is regime-dependent: the rolling one-year correlation swung between -0.52 and -0.02 over the past three years, so this pair behaves very differently depending on the market environment. Risk is not evenly split, since USO carries 7.6 times the volatility of the other side.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
BND vs USO: side by side
| BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) | USO (United States Oil Fund) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +2.3% | +74.1% |
| 5-year return | -1.3% | +168.6% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 5.2% | 39.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.06 | -0.20 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -4.7% | -32.5% |
| Sector / category | ETF · Bonds | ETF · Commodities |
Year-by-year returns
| Year | BND | USO |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -13.1% | +29.0% |
| 2023 | +5.7% | -4.9% |
| 2024 | +1.4% | +13.4% |
| 2025 | +7.1% | -8.5% |
| 2026 | +0.2% | +88.0% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are BND and USO good diversifiers for each other?
Yes. With a correlation of -0.28, BND and USO have moved largely independently, which makes them a genuinely diversifying pair by historical standards.
FAQ
What is the correlation between BND and USO?
Using weekly returns as of 2026-08-27: -0.28 over 3 years, with -0.53 over the last year and -0.19 over 5 years.
Is USO a good diversifier for BND?
Yes. With a correlation of -0.28, BND and USO have moved largely independently, which makes them a genuinely diversifying pair by historical standards.
What does a correlation of -0.28 mean?
A reading of -0.28 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
Use this data
$ curl https://www.pairbook.io/api/v1/pairs/bnd-vs-uso.json
Drop this badge in a README or notebook; it updates with the data:
[](https://www.pairbook.io/pair/bnd-vs-uso/)
No key needed, free to use. Full endpoint list in the API documentation.
Related comparisons
Hubs: BND correlations · USO correlations
