MRNA vs SPY: Correlation
How closely do Moderna (MRNA) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) trade together? Their weekly returns over three years give a correlation of 0.14, which is weak.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are MRNA and SPY?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of MRNA and SPY correlate at 0.14, weak. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at -0.00 versus 0.14 over 3 years. Stretching to 5 years gives 0.19, with an annualized covariance of 204.5 %².
Among the 38 assets we track against MRNA, SPY ranks #28 by 3-year correlation. The last year tells two different stories: MRNA led by 448.2 percentage points, +468.8% for MRNA against +20.6% for SPY. On a rolling one-year basis the correlation drifted between 0.07 and 0.57, a moderate band. One caveat on sizing: MRNA is 6.9 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
MRNA vs SPY: side by side
| MRNA (Moderna) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +468.8% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | -61.5% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 100.7% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -86.6% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $57.0B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | – | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | Health Care | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | MRNA | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -29.3% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | -44.6% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | -58.2% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -29.1% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +384.1% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
A structural note: 0.08% of SPY is MRNA itself, so the fund partly moves with the stock by construction.
Are MRNA and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Yes. With a correlation of 0.14, MRNA and SPY have moved largely independently, which makes them a genuinely diversifying pair by historical standards.
FAQ
What is the correlation between MRNA and SPY?
Using weekly returns as of 2026-08-27: 0.14 over 3 years, with -0.00 over the last year and 0.19 over 5 years.
Is SPY a good diversifier for MRNA?
Yes. With a correlation of 0.14, MRNA and SPY have moved largely independently, which makes them a genuinely diversifying pair by historical standards.
What does a correlation of 0.14 mean?
A reading of 0.14 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: MRNA correlations · SPY correlations
