MPC vs SPY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) carry a correlation of 0.20, a weak link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are MPC and SPY?
Over the past 3 years, MPC and SPY moved with a correlation of 0.20, which is weak. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at -0.26 versus 0.20 over 3 years. Over 5 years the correlation is 0.25, and the annualized covariance of weekly returns is 101.3 %².
By 3-year correlation, SPY places #18 of the 29 assets tracked against MPC. The last year tells two different stories: MPC led by 87.2 percentage points, +107.8% for MPC against +20.6% for SPY. The relationship is regime-dependent: the rolling one-year correlation swung between -0.29 and 0.62 over the past three years, so this pair behaves very differently depending on the market environment. One caveat on sizing: MPC is 2.4 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
MPC vs SPY: side by side
| MPC (Marathon Petroleum) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +107.8% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | +589.6% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 34.2% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.48 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -44.7% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $102.1B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 12.6 | – |
| Dividend yield | 1.10% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | Energy | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | MPC | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +86.6% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +30.5% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | -4.1% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +19.2% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +126.1% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
MPC represents 0.16% of SPY's portfolio, so part of any move in SPY is MPC itself, and the correlation between them is partly mechanical.
Are MPC and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Reasonably. At 0.20, MPC and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
FAQ
What is the correlation between MPC and SPY?
Using weekly returns as of 2026-08-27: 0.20 over 3 years, with -0.26 over the last year and 0.25 over 5 years.
Is SPY a good diversifier for MPC?
Reasonably. At 0.20, MPC and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
What does a correlation of 0.20 mean?
A reading of 0.20 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
Use this data
$ curl https://www.pairbook.io/api/v1/pairs/mpc-vs-spy.json
Embed this badge (it refreshes with the data), with attribution:
[](https://www.pairbook.io/pair/mpc-vs-spy/)
Free with attribution; caching and terms are described in the API documentation.
Related comparisons
Hubs: MPC correlations · SPY correlations
