HOG vs SPY: Correlation
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) show a moderate relationship: their 3-year correlation of weekly returns is 0.39.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are HOG and SPY?
On 3 years of weekly data the HOG/SPY correlation comes out at 0.39, moderate. Little has changed lately, as the 1-year reading of 0.33 lands near the 3-year figure. The 5-year figure is 0.49, and annualized covariance runs at 191.1 %².
Among the 10 assets we track against HOG, SPY sits near the bottom by co-movement, at rank #6. Correlation aside, the last 12 months split them widely, with SPY ahead by 22.0 points (-1.4% versus +20.6%). Note the risk asymmetry: HOG runs 2.4 times the annualized volatility of the other leg, so equal-weighting the two is not an equal-risk position.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
HOG vs SPY: side by side
| HOG (Harley-Davidson, Inc.) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | -1.4% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | -22.1% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 34.2% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -58.7% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $2.9B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 15.5 | – |
| Dividend yield | 2.64% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | US Listed | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | HOG | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +12.1% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | -9.8% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | -16.6% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -30.1% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +38.4% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are HOG and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Reasonably. At 0.39, HOG and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
FAQ
What is the correlation between HOG and SPY?
As of 2026-08-27, the correlation of weekly returns between HOG and SPY is 0.39 over 3 years, 0.33 over 1 year and 0.49 over 5 years.
Is SPY a good diversifier for HOG?
Reasonably. At 0.39, HOG and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
What does a correlation of 0.39 mean?
A reading of 0.39 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: HOG correlations · SPY correlations
