CF vs SPY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, CF Industries (CF) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) carry a correlation of -0.09, a near-zero link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are CF and SPY?
Over the past 3 years, CF and SPY moved with a correlation of -0.09, which is near zero, meaning they move largely independently. The past 12 months show a weaker link (-0.46) than the 3-year average (-0.09). Over 5 years the correlation is 0.06, and the annualized covariance of weekly returns is -41.7 %².
Among the 50 assets we track against CF, SPY ranks #24 by 3-year correlation. Their recent paths diverged sharply: over the last 12 months CF outperformed by 28.0 percentage points (+48.6% for CF against +20.6% for SPY). The relationship is regime-dependent: the rolling one-year correlation swung between -0.44 and 0.32 over the past three years, so this pair behaves very differently depending on the market environment. Note the risk asymmetry: CF runs 2.3 times the annualized volatility of the other leg, so equal-weighting the two is not an equal-risk position.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
CF vs SPY: side by side
| CF (CF Industries) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +48.6% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | +211.5% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 32.8% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -29.2% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $19.0B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 9.3 | – |
| Dividend yield | 1.59% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | Materials | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | CF | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +22.3% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | -4.7% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +10.1% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -7.2% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +64.9% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are CF and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Yes: at -0.09, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
FAQ
What is the correlation between CF and SPY?
The CF/SPY correlation stands at -0.09 on a 3-year window (1 year: -0.46, 5 years: 0.06), computed from weekly returns as of 2026-08-27.
Is SPY a good diversifier for CF?
Yes: at -0.09, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
What does a correlation of -0.09 mean?
Correlation ranges from −1 to +1. Values near +1 mean two assets move together, near 0 that they move independently, and negative values that they tend to move in opposite directions. It measures co-movement, not performance.
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Hubs: CF correlations · SPY correlations
