ARI vs SPY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc (ARI) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) carry a correlation of 0.39, a moderate link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are ARI and SPY?
Over the past 3 years, ARI and SPY moved with a correlation of 0.39, which is moderate. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at 0.25 versus 0.39 over 3 years. Over 5 years the correlation is 0.56, and the annualized covariance of weekly returns is 134.5 %².
SPY is close to the least connected end of ARI's tracked universe, ranking #6 of 10. Over the last 12 months SPY came out ahead by 9.2 percentage points (+11.4% against +20.6%). One caveat on sizing: ARI is 1.6 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
ARI vs SPY: side by side
| ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +11.4% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | +21.3% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 23.8% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.64 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -24.7% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $0.9B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 8.5 | – |
| Dividend yield | 14.68% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | US Listed | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | ARI | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -7.1% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +24.5% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | -16.5% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +23.8% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +13.3% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are ARI and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
A fair diversifier. At 0.39, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
FAQ
What is the correlation between ARI and SPY?
Using weekly returns as of 2026-08-27: 0.39 over 3 years, with 0.25 over the last year and 0.56 over 5 years.
Is SPY a good diversifier for ARI?
A fair diversifier. At 0.39, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
What does a correlation of 0.39 mean?
On the −1 to +1 scale, 0.39 describes how much the two returns move together: +1 is lockstep, 0 is independence, negative values mean opposite directions. It says nothing about which performed better.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: ARI correlations · SPY correlations
