AA vs SPY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Alcoa Corporation (AA) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) carry a correlation of 0.49, a moderate link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are AA and SPY?
Over the past 3 years, AA and SPY moved with a correlation of 0.49, which is moderate. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at 0.32 versus 0.49 over 3 years. Over 5 years the correlation is 0.49, and the annualized covariance of weekly returns is 357.7 %².
Among the 12 assets we track against AA, SPY ranks #7 by 3-year correlation. Their recent paths diverged sharply: over the last 12 months AA outperformed by 41.6 percentage points (+62.2% for AA against +20.6% for SPY). Note the risk asymmetry: AA runs 3.5 times the annualized volatility of the other leg, so equal-weighting the two is not an equal-risk position.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
AA vs SPY: side by side
| AA (Alcoa Corporation) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +62.2% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | +22.3% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 50.8% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -52.3% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $13.5B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 10.3 | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.80% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | US Listed | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | AA | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -23.1% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | -24.3% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +12.4% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +42.5% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | -3.2% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are AA and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Yes, to a useful degree: a correlation of 0.49 leaves real independence between the two, which historically damped combined volatility.
FAQ
What is the correlation between AA and SPY?
As of 2026-08-27, the correlation of weekly returns between AA and SPY is 0.49 over 3 years, 0.32 over 1 year and 0.49 over 5 years.
Is SPY a good diversifier for AA?
Yes, to a useful degree: a correlation of 0.49 leaves real independence between the two, which historically damped combined volatility.
What does a correlation of 0.49 mean?
On the −1 to +1 scale, 0.49 describes how much the two returns move together: +1 is lockstep, 0 is independence, negative values mean opposite directions. It says nothing about which performed better.
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