TLT vs USO: Correlation
How closely do iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and United States Oil Fund (USO) trade together? Their weekly returns over three years give a correlation of -0.27, which is negative.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are TLT and USO?
On 3 years of weekly data the TLT/USO correlation comes out at -0.27, negative, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at -0.47 versus -0.27 over 3 years. The 5-year figure is -0.24, and annualized covariance runs at -141.2 %².
Out of 37 assets tracked against TLT, USO lands near the bottom at #34. The last year tells two different stories: USO led by 73.8 percentage points, +0.3% for TLT against +74.1% for USO. Across three years, the rolling one-year figure varied moderately, from -0.47 to -0.06. One caveat on sizing: USO is 2.9 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
TLT vs USO: side by side
| TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) | USO (United States Oil Fund) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +0.3% | +74.1% |
| 5-year return | -34.0% | +168.6% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 13.5% | 39.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.11 | -0.20 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -14.8% | -32.5% |
| Dividend yield | 4.75% | – |
| Expense ratio | 0.15% | – |
| Assets under management | $41.5B | – |
| Sector / category | ETF · Bonds | ETF · Commodities |
TLT is a Long Government fund from iShares: $41.5B under management, a 0.15% expense ratio, a 4.75% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | TLT | USO |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -31.2% | +29.0% |
| 2023 | +2.8% | -4.9% |
| 2024 | -8.1% | +13.4% |
| 2025 | +4.2% | -8.5% |
| 2026 | -2.1% | +88.0% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are TLT and USO good diversifiers for each other?
Yes: at -0.27, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
FAQ
What is the correlation between TLT and USO?
Using weekly returns as of 2026-08-27: -0.27 over 3 years, with -0.47 over the last year and -0.24 over 5 years.
Is USO a good diversifier for TLT?
Yes: at -0.27, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
What does a correlation of -0.27 mean?
On the −1 to +1 scale, -0.27 describes how much the two returns move together: +1 is lockstep, 0 is independence, negative values mean opposite directions. It says nothing about which performed better.
Use this data
$ curl https://www.pairbook.io/api/v1/pairs/tlt-vs-uso.json
Drop this badge in a README or notebook; it updates with the data:
[](https://www.pairbook.io/pair/tlt-vs-uso/)
No key needed, free to use. Full endpoint list in the API documentation.
Related comparisons
Hubs: TLT correlations · USO correlations
