SERA vs SPY: Correlation
Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) show a weak relationship: their 3-year correlation of weekly returns is 0.15.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are SERA and SPY?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of SERA and SPY correlate at 0.15, weak. Lately the two have moved closer together, with the 1-year correlation at 0.26 versus 0.15 over 3 years. Stretching to 5 years gives 0.15, with an annualized covariance of 268.8 %².
Within SERA's tracked universe of 12 assets, SPY comes in at #7 by 3-year correlation. Correlation aside, the last 12 months split them widely, with SPY ahead by 49.1 points (-28.5% versus +20.6%). Note the risk asymmetry: SERA runs 8.7 times the annualized volatility of the other leg, so equal-weighting the two is not an equal-risk position.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
SERA vs SPY: side by side
| SERA (Sera Prognostics, Inc.) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | -28.5% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | -79.2% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 125.6% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -87.3% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $0.1B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | – | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | US Listed | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | SERA | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -81.7% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +374.6% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +36.1% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -63.8% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | -31.2% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are SERA and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Yes: at 0.15, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
FAQ
What is the correlation between SERA and SPY?
The SERA/SPY correlation stands at 0.15 on a 3-year window (1 year: 0.26, 5 years: 0.15), computed from weekly returns as of 2026-08-27.
Is SPY a good diversifier for SERA?
Yes: at 0.15, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
What does a correlation of 0.15 mean?
On the −1 to +1 scale, 0.15 describes how much the two returns move together: +1 is lockstep, 0 is independence, negative values mean opposite directions. It says nothing about which performed better.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: SERA correlations · SPY correlations
