PGR vs SPY: Correlation
Progressive Corporation (PGR) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) show a weak relationship: their 3-year correlation of weekly returns is 0.20.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are PGR and SPY?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of PGR and SPY correlate at 0.20, weak. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at -0.10 versus 0.20 over 3 years. Stretching to 5 years gives 0.29, with an annualized covariance of 67.4 %².
Among the 36 assets we track against PGR, SPY ranks #22 by 3-year correlation. Correlation aside, the last 12 months split them widely, with SPY ahead by 25.9 points (-5.3% versus +20.6%). This link changes with the market regime, having swung between -0.23 and 0.57 on a rolling one-year basis. Note the risk asymmetry: PGR runs 1.6 times the annualized volatility of the other leg, so equal-weighting the two is not an equal-risk position.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
PGR vs SPY: side by side
| PGR (Progressive Corporation) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | -5.3% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | +153.0% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 23.6% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.32 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -30.4% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $126.5B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 10.9 | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.18% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | Financials | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | PGR | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +26.8% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +23.2% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +51.4% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -3.0% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +1.7% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
PGR represents 0.2% of SPY's portfolio, so part of any move in SPY is PGR itself, and the correlation between them is partly mechanical.
Are PGR and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
A fair diversifier. At 0.20, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
FAQ
What is the correlation between PGR and SPY?
The PGR/SPY correlation stands at 0.20 on a 3-year window (1 year: -0.10, 5 years: 0.29), computed from weekly returns as of 2026-08-27.
Is SPY a good diversifier for PGR?
A fair diversifier. At 0.20, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
What does a correlation of 0.20 mean?
A reading of 0.20 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: PGR correlations · SPY correlations
