OLLI vs SPY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) carry a correlation of 0.31, a moderate link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are OLLI and SPY?
On 3 years of weekly data the OLLI/SPY correlation comes out at 0.31, moderate. Recent behaviour matches the longer record: 0.32 over 1 year against 0.31 over 3. The 5-year figure is 0.34, and annualized covariance runs at 157.2 %².
Among the 12 assets we track against OLLI, SPY ranks #6 by 3-year correlation. Correlation aside, the last 12 months split them widely, with SPY ahead by 65.8 points (-45.2% versus +20.6%). One caveat on sizing: OLLI is 2.4 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
OLLI vs SPY: side by side
| OLLI (Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | -45.2% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | -6.7% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 35.2% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -56.1% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $4.3B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 18.4 | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | US Listed | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | OLLI | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -8.5% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +62.0% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +44.6% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -0.1% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | -34.8% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are OLLI and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Reasonably. At 0.31, OLLI and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
FAQ
What is the correlation between OLLI and SPY?
The OLLI/SPY correlation stands at 0.31 on a 3-year window (1 year: 0.32, 5 years: 0.34), computed from weekly returns as of 2026-08-27.
Is SPY a good diversifier for OLLI?
Reasonably. At 0.31, OLLI and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
What does a correlation of 0.31 mean?
On the −1 to +1 scale, 0.31 describes how much the two returns move together: +1 is lockstep, 0 is independence, negative values mean opposite directions. It says nothing about which performed better.
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Hubs: OLLI correlations · SPY correlations
