ODFL vs SPY: Correlation
How closely do Old Dominion (ODFL) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) trade together? Their weekly returns over three years give a correlation of 0.41, which is moderate.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are ODFL and SPY?
On 3 years of weekly data the ODFL/SPY correlation comes out at 0.41, moderate. The link has loosened recently: the 1-year correlation (0.14) runs below the 3-year figure (0.41). The 5-year figure is 0.52, and annualized covariance runs at 204.5 %².
Among the 36 assets we track against ODFL, SPY ranks #25 by 3-year correlation. The trailing year gives ODFL the advantage: +30.9% versus +20.6%, a 10.3-point spread. The relationship is regime-dependent: the rolling one-year correlation swung between 0.14 and 0.69 over the past three years, so this pair behaves very differently depending on the market environment. One caveat on sizing: ODFL is 2.4 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
ODFL vs SPY: side by side
| ODFL (Old Dominion) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +30.9% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | +39.6% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 34.7% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -45.2% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $41.6B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 38.3 | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.57% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | Industrials | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | ODFL | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -20.5% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +43.5% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | -12.5% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -10.5% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +27.9% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
ODFL represents 0.06% of SPY's portfolio, so part of any move in SPY is ODFL itself, and the correlation between them is partly mechanical.
Are ODFL and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
A fair diversifier. At 0.41, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
FAQ
What is the correlation between ODFL and SPY?
As of 2026-08-27, the correlation of weekly returns between ODFL and SPY is 0.41 over 3 years, 0.14 over 1 year and 0.52 over 5 years.
Is SPY a good diversifier for ODFL?
A fair diversifier. At 0.41, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
What does a correlation of 0.41 mean?
Correlation ranges from −1 to +1. Values near +1 mean two assets move together, near 0 that they move independently, and negative values that they tend to move in opposite directions. It measures co-movement, not performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: ODFL correlations · SPY correlations
