MSCI vs VTI: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, MSCI (MSCI) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) carry a correlation of 0.48, a moderate link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are MSCI and VTI?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of MSCI and VTI correlate at 0.48, moderate. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at 0.35 versus 0.48 over 3 years. Stretching to 5 years gives 0.64, with an annualized covariance of 177.5 %².
By 3-year correlation, VTI places #13 of the 27 assets tracked against MSCI. Their recent paths diverged sharply: over the last 12 months VTI outperformed by 19.4 percentage points (+1.3% for MSCI against +20.7% for VTI). The rolling one-year correlation moved between 0.33 and 0.72 over the past three years, a moderate range. One caveat on sizing: MSCI is 1.7 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
MSCI vs VTI: side by side
| MSCI (MSCI) | VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +1.3% | +20.7% |
| 5-year return | -5.6% | +74.8% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 25.4% | 14.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.85 | 1.01 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -26.0% | -19.3% |
| Market cap | $41.4B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 30.9 | – |
| Dividend yield | 1.36% | 1.06% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.03% |
| Assets under management | – | $2,290.0B |
| Sector / category | Financials | ETF · US Large Cap |
VTI, Vanguard's Large Blend fund, carries $2,290.0B under management, 3140 holdings, a 0.03% expense ratio, a 1.06% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | MSCI | VTI |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -23.3% | -19.5% |
| 2023 | +22.9% | +26.0% |
| 2024 | +7.3% | +23.8% |
| 2025 | -3.2% | +17.1% |
| 2026 | +0.3% | +14.2% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
A structural note: 0.06% of VTI is MSCI itself, so the fund partly moves with the stock by construction.
Are MSCI and VTI good diversifiers for each other?
Yes, to a useful degree: a correlation of 0.48 leaves real independence between the two, which historically damped combined volatility.
FAQ
What is the correlation between MSCI and VTI?
The MSCI/VTI correlation stands at 0.48 on a 3-year window (1 year: 0.35, 5 years: 0.64), computed from weekly returns as of 2026-08-27.
Is VTI a good diversifier for MSCI?
Yes, to a useful degree: a correlation of 0.48 leaves real independence between the two, which historically damped combined volatility.
What does a correlation of 0.48 mean?
A reading of 0.48 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: MSCI correlations · VTI correlations
