ITW vs USO: Correlation
How closely do Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and United States Oil Fund (USO) trade together? Their weekly returns over three years give a correlation of -0.22, which is negative.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are ITW and USO?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of ITW and USO correlate at -0.22, negative, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at -0.40 versus -0.22 over 3 years. Stretching to 5 years gives -0.07, with an annualized covariance of -167.7 %².
Out of 81 assets tracked against ITW, USO lands near the bottom at #77. The last year tells two different stories: USO led by 65.9 percentage points, +8.2% for ITW against +74.1% for USO. The relationship is regime-dependent: the rolling one-year correlation swung between -0.42 and 0.13 over the past three years, so this pair behaves very differently depending on the market environment. Note the risk asymmetry: USO runs 2.1 times the annualized volatility of the other leg, so equal-weighting the two is not an equal-risk position.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
ITW vs USO: side by side
| ITW (Illinois Tool Works) | USO (United States Oil Fund) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +8.2% | +74.1% |
| 5-year return | +36.1% | +168.6% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 19.0% | 39.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.64 | -0.20 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -20.6% | -32.5% |
| Market cap | $80.2B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 25.8 | – |
| Dividend yield | 2.26% | – |
| Sector / category | Industrials | ETF · Commodities |
Year-by-year returns
| Year | ITW | USO |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -8.5% | +29.0% |
| 2023 | +21.6% | -4.9% |
| 2024 | -1.0% | +13.4% |
| 2025 | -0.4% | -8.5% |
| 2026 | +15.8% | +88.0% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are ITW and USO good diversifiers for each other?
By historical standards, yes. A correlation of -0.22 means the two rarely move for the same reasons.
FAQ
What is the correlation between ITW and USO?
Using weekly returns as of 2026-08-27: -0.22 over 3 years, with -0.40 over the last year and -0.07 over 5 years.
Is USO a good diversifier for ITW?
By historical standards, yes. A correlation of -0.22 means the two rarely move for the same reasons.
What does a correlation of -0.22 mean?
Correlation ranges from −1 to +1. Values near +1 mean two assets move together, near 0 that they move independently, and negative values that they tend to move in opposite directions. It measures co-movement, not performance.
Use this data
$ curl https://www.pairbook.io/api/v1/pairs/itw-vs-uso.json
Drop this badge in a README or notebook; it updates with the data:
[](https://www.pairbook.io/pair/itw-vs-uso/)
No key needed, free to use. Full endpoint list in the API documentation.
Related comparisons
Hubs: ITW correlations · USO correlations
