ITW vs SPY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) carry a correlation of 0.49, a moderate link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are ITW and SPY?
On 3 years of weekly data the ITW/SPY correlation comes out at 0.49, moderate. The past 12 months show a weaker link (0.18) than the 3-year average (0.49). The 5-year figure is 0.64, and annualized covariance runs at 134.2 %².
Among the 81 assets we track against ITW, SPY ranks #56 by 3-year correlation. On 12-month performance SPY holds a 12.4-point edge, +8.2% against +20.6%. The relationship is regime-dependent: the rolling one-year correlation swung between 0.16 and 0.78 over the past three years, so this pair behaves very differently depending on the market environment.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
ITW vs SPY: side by side
| ITW (Illinois Tool Works) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +8.2% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | +36.1% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 19.0% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.64 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -20.6% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $80.2B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 25.8 | – |
| Dividend yield | 2.26% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | Industrials | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | ITW | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -8.5% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +21.6% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | -1.0% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -0.4% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +15.8% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
Keep in mind that SPY holds ITW at a 0.11% weight, which makes a slice of this correlation mechanical rather than coincidental.
Are ITW and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Reasonably. At 0.49, ITW and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
FAQ
What is the correlation between ITW and SPY?
As of 2026-08-27, the correlation of weekly returns between ITW and SPY is 0.49 over 3 years, 0.18 over 1 year and 0.64 over 5 years.
Is SPY a good diversifier for ITW?
Reasonably. At 0.49, ITW and SPY keep a meaningful degree of independence, and combining them has historically reduced portfolio volatility.
What does a correlation of 0.49 mean?
A reading of 0.49 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: ITW correlations · SPY correlations
