ITW vs MDY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) carry a correlation of 0.68, a strong link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are ITW and MDY?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of ITW and MDY correlate at 0.68, strong. The relationship has been stable: the 1-year correlation (0.61) sits close to the 3-year figure. Stretching to 5 years gives 0.74, with an annualized covariance of 214.7 %².
By 3-year correlation, MDY places #17 of the 81 assets tracked against ITW. On 12-month performance MDY holds a 10.1-point edge, +8.2% against +18.3%. The rolling one-year correlation stayed in a tight band between 0.62 and 0.84 over the past three years, which points to a structural rather than episodic relationship.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
ITW vs MDY: side by side
| ITW (Illinois Tool Works) | MDY (SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +8.2% | +18.3% |
| 5-year return | +36.1% | +47.5% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 19.0% | 16.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.64 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -20.6% | -24.0% |
| Market cap | $80.2B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 25.8 | – |
| Dividend yield | 2.26% | 1.02% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.23% |
| Assets under management | – | $26.5B |
| Sector / category | Industrials | ETF · US Small & Mid Cap |
MDY, State Street Investment Management's Mid-Cap Blend fund, carries $26.5B under management, 400 holdings, a 0.23% expense ratio, a 1.02% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | ITW | MDY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -8.5% | -13.3% |
| 2023 | +21.6% | +16.1% |
| 2024 | -1.0% | +13.6% |
| 2025 | -0.4% | +7.2% |
| 2026 | +15.8% | +16.4% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are ITW and MDY good diversifiers for each other?
Somewhat, no more. With 0.68 correlation, most large moves hit both names, and the diversification benefit stays modest.
FAQ
What is the correlation between ITW and MDY?
Using weekly returns as of 2026-08-27: 0.68 over 3 years, with 0.61 over the last year and 0.74 over 5 years.
Is MDY a good diversifier for ITW?
Somewhat, no more. With 0.68 correlation, most large moves hit both names, and the diversification benefit stays modest.
What does a correlation of 0.68 mean?
A reading of 0.68 sits on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (identical moves). Correlation captures direction, not magnitude or performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: ITW correlations · MDY correlations
