GFR vs SPY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) carry a correlation of 0.15, a weak link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are GFR and SPY?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of GFR and SPY correlate at 0.15, weak. The link has loosened recently: the 1-year correlation (-0.25) runs below the 3-year figure (0.15). Stretching to 5 years gives 0.11, with an annualized covariance of 114.6 %².
Among the 11 assets we track against GFR, SPY ranks #6 by 3-year correlation. Their 12-month results are close: +23.0% for GFR against +20.6% for SPY. Note the risk asymmetry: GFR runs 3.7 times the annualized volatility of the other leg, so equal-weighting the two is not an equal-risk position.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
GFR vs SPY: side by side
| GFR (Greenfire Resources Ltd.) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +23.0% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | -37.0% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 53.7% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -63.5% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $0.9B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | – | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | US Listed | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | GFR | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +2.7% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | -52.1% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +45.3% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -32.6% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +29.2% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are GFR and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Yes: at 0.15, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
FAQ
What is the correlation between GFR and SPY?
As of 2026-08-27, the correlation of weekly returns between GFR and SPY is 0.15 over 3 years, -0.25 over 1 year and 0.11 over 5 years.
Is SPY a good diversifier for GFR?
Yes: at 0.15, the two have gone their own ways historically, which is what genuine diversification looks like.
What does a correlation of 0.15 mean?
Correlation ranges from −1 to +1. Values near +1 mean two assets move together, near 0 that they move independently, and negative values that they tend to move in opposite directions. It measures co-movement, not performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: GFR correlations · SPY correlations
