DOW vs SPY: Correlation
Measured on weekly returns over the past three years, Dow Inc. (DOW) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) carry a correlation of 0.25, a weak link.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are DOW and SPY?
On 3 years of weekly data the DOW/SPY correlation comes out at 0.25, weak. The link has loosened recently: the 1-year correlation (-0.11) runs below the 3-year figure (0.25). The 5-year figure is 0.36, and annualized covariance runs at 129.6 %².
Within DOW's tracked universe of 32 assets, SPY comes in at #21 by 3-year correlation. Over the last 12 months DOW came out ahead by 8.4 percentage points (+29.0% against +20.6%). The relationship is regime-dependent: the rolling one-year correlation swung between -0.08 and 0.69 over the past three years, so this pair behaves very differently depending on the market environment. One caveat on sizing: DOW is 2.4 times as volatile as the other leg, so an equal-dollar split is far from equal-risk.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
DOW vs SPY: side by side
| DOW (Dow Inc.) | SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +29.0% | +20.6% |
| 5-year return | -38.4% | +82.4% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 35.2% | 14.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -62.2% | -18.8% |
| Market cap | $21.9B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | – | – |
| Dividend yield | 4.62% | 1.01% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.09% |
| Assets under management | – | $795.3B |
| Sector / category | Materials | ETF · US Large Cap |
SPY is a Large Blend fund from State Street Investment Management: $795.3B under management, 504 holdings, a 0.09% expense ratio, a 1.01% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | DOW | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -6.6% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +14.7% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | -22.8% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | -37.4% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +32.6% | +13.7% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Are DOW and SPY good diversifiers for each other?
Yes, to a useful degree: a correlation of 0.25 leaves real independence between the two, which historically damped combined volatility.
FAQ
What is the correlation between DOW and SPY?
The DOW/SPY correlation stands at 0.25 on a 3-year window (1 year: -0.11, 5 years: 0.36), computed from weekly returns as of 2026-08-27.
Is SPY a good diversifier for DOW?
Yes, to a useful degree: a correlation of 0.25 leaves real independence between the two, which historically damped combined volatility.
What does a correlation of 0.25 mean?
Correlation ranges from −1 to +1. Values near +1 mean two assets move together, near 0 that they move independently, and negative values that they tend to move in opposite directions. It measures co-movement, not performance.
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Hubs: DOW correlations · SPY correlations
