CHDN vs MDY: Correlation
How closely do Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) and SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) trade together? Their weekly returns over three years give a correlation of 0.46, which is moderate.
Data as of 2026-08-27 · refreshed every trading day · weekly returns · methodology
How correlated are CHDN and MDY?
Across a 3-year window, the weekly returns of CHDN and MDY correlate at 0.46, moderate. Lately the two have drifted apart, with the 1-year correlation at 0.29 versus 0.46 over 3 years. Stretching to 5 years gives 0.53, with an annualized covariance of 207.4 %².
MDY is one of the assets that tracks CHDN most closely: it ranks #1 out of the 11 assets we track against CHDN. Their recent paths diverged sharply: over the last 12 months MDY outperformed by 36.5 percentage points (-18.2% for CHDN against +18.3% for MDY). Risk is not evenly split, since CHDN carries 1.7 times the volatility of the other side.
How is this computed?
Pearson correlation on weekly returns: ρ(A,B) = cov(rA, rB) / (σA · σB), over windows of 52, 156 and 260 weeks. Covariance is annualized (×52) and expressed in %². Full definitions on the methodology page.
CHDN vs MDY: side by side
| CHDN (Churchill Downs, Incorporated) | MDY (SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | -18.2% | +18.3% |
| 5-year return | -16.1% | +47.5% |
| Volatility (ann.) | 27.4% | 16.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 0.72 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (3Y) | -43.9% | -24.0% |
| Market cap | $6.0B | – |
| P/E (trailing) | 14.9 | – |
| Dividend yield | 0.50% | 1.02% |
| Expense ratio | – | 0.23% |
| Assets under management | – | $26.5B |
| Sector / category | US Listed | ETF · US Small & Mid Cap |
MDY, State Street Investment Management's Mid-Cap Blend fund, carries $26.5B under management, 400 holdings, a 0.23% expense ratio, a 1.02% trailing dividend yield.
Year-by-year returns
| Year | CHDN | MDY |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -12.0% | -13.3% |
| 2023 | +28.1% | +16.1% |
| 2024 | -0.7% | +13.6% |
| 2025 | -14.5% | +7.2% |
| 2026 | -24.0% | +16.4% |
Calendar-year price returns; the current year is year-to-date as of the data date above.
Fund exposure
Keep in mind that MDY holds CHDN at a 0.16% weight, which makes a slice of this correlation mechanical rather than coincidental.
Are CHDN and MDY good diversifiers for each other?
A fair diversifier. At 0.46, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
FAQ
What is the correlation between CHDN and MDY?
The CHDN/MDY correlation stands at 0.46 on a 3-year window (1 year: 0.29, 5 years: 0.53), computed from weekly returns as of 2026-08-27.
Is MDY a good diversifier for CHDN?
A fair diversifier. At 0.46, enough of each asset's movement is its own that the pair has smoothed outcomes historically.
What does a correlation of 0.46 mean?
Correlation ranges from −1 to +1. Values near +1 mean two assets move together, near 0 that they move independently, and negative values that they tend to move in opposite directions. It measures co-movement, not performance.
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Related comparisons
Hubs: CHDN correlations · MDY correlations
